Verðlaunagripurinn er silfurslegið stundaglas.

Andri Snær Magnason’s Acceptance speech -at the Kairos Award Ceremony in Hamburg. February 28. 2010. On the link above you will find pictures and other speeches from the event. 

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, my Dear Friends, Colleagues and my Dear Family og hæ – krakkar!

I would like to thank Mr. Christoph Stolzl and Mr. Halldór Guðmundsson for their kind words and all of you for this great honour.

I you ask an Icelandic child about Hamburg the first thing that will come to it’s mind is the word game that is often played when travelling in a car: “What are you doing with the money the lady from Hamburg gave to you?”. You must answer but you may not say “yes”, “no”, “black” or “white”. So you say: I bought a car. Was it red? Indeed – it was read? Not blue ?- No… Then you are out.  So it was funny when I told my children we would actually meet the lady from Hamburg. But we had to use the money on something very special – something between yes and no, black and white. Maybe that is the real space where art lives.

But why did I take this path in life? If you ask my psychologist he would say that it is because I have two mothers – they are identical twins – that creates a very good ground for a strange mind and some complexes – a douple öedipus to deal with for example. Despite sharing the same genes and upbringing – they have opposite veiws on everything. That I might have from my mothers, the ability to see things from two correct perspectives and never quite agree with myself. 

If you would ask my brother he would blame it on Lego – I hoped I would never grow up from Lego. But later I found out that Lego is quite like language – you have prefabricated parts but can build a whole world from them. But the cool thing is that language is bigger, more bricks – and endless colors. Even an old language spoken by very few people – like Icelandic, can be used to create almost anything. And then it can be translated to German or Chinese.

If you ask my sister she would say that I would have become a doctor like my father, and my grandfather – and my great grandfather – if she hadn’t become a brain surgeon first. She is a much better student than me and more disciplined. But by becoming a brain surgeon she reduced the pressure on us brothers and gave us freedom. At least our parents could be proud of one child. Still I managed to take the first year in medicine – only leading to strange stories later published in my short story collection. One had something to do with anatomy – of a mermaid – if the sailor that caught the mermaid of his dreams would become disappointed when he understood that making love was just a question of fertalizing the caviar in the kitchen sink.

 If you ask my grandmother she would say something similar to what she said after my big launch lecture from the book Dreamland:

“I always thought you were retarded. But now I am not sure anymore.”

That was a compliment and she laughed. It might be people like her that give you most of the tools needed to write a book – that is if you want to use irony, sarcasm and black humour. And it helps to have been taught not to take things too seriously and specially not yourself.

 My father would say it all comes from our family in north Iceland.  My grandfather probably read too much of Tao when he was in his 50s – he lost all political, activist and carrier ambission. His only ambition was to live a simple, good and quiet life – he started renovating his deserted childhood farm, taking 4 months every summer to go up north to catch trout, birds and seal, collect eiderdown and just live. He left us nothing but a huge extended family that has not just met in funerals, but actually spent time together in the old house, flying in from all the corners of the world. From him we know most species of birds in Iceland – you can sit on one rock and hear 17 types of birds trying to distract you at the same time. That teaches you some respect and understanding of how nature works. And if an arctic tern attacks you – after flyting from South-Africa to Iceland to lay its eggs – you deserve being attacked.

 My grandfather was raised in a real crisis – The Great Depression. He was rich as a child because he was not hungry. The depression taught them to value earths resources, they ate everything – and tried to find use for everything -  when he died 2006 he was buried in red socks he had stiched himself, we thought it was symbolic. But I was thinking – If my children become as old as my grandfather – they would still be alive in the year 2093 – imagine that 2093. And my grandchildren might still be alive in 2130.

 Some people think science fiction is just a subculture for the nerds, but just having children and imagining their fate is really science fiction. Just thinking about the world after 30 years – is science fiction. 2093 is the expiring date of what we produce today. And sometimes, or most of the time – we treat the planet and it’s resources we live on like the year 2093 had nothing to do with us – and we do not connect the word sustainability to thoughts like. “It might be a good idea to have some oil to harvest corn in the future”. And while we have no alternative solution it is morally wrong to waste the oil. So maybe a lack of fantasy creates a lack of realism in our lives, we underestimate our creative strength and do not have the ability to imagine the consequences of what we are doing today, despite all the knowledge and data.

1919 – 2130 – that is my time – the span of people I have actually met, loved and know or will know, love and meet. But we do not think in that length – we think in quarterly profit. My daughters span might be 1926 – 2170.

My grandmother on my mothers side went on a 3 week honeymoon on Vatnajökull Glacier with my step grandfather. Parts of the Icelandic highlands were still an unknown and unnamed territory as late as 1956. One of the landmarks on the glacier is today called – the Brides Belly. On that area, a high glacier plateu, they had to wait for three days for a snow storm to calm down. When I asked if they were not cold – they were almost offended and said – cold? We were just married! They were pioneers in the rugged and roadless highlands of Iceland – finding and naming places – that my generation is now fighting to preserve or develope. But it is not only in the hands of Icelanders. It has been calculated that The Brides Belly will have melted in the lifetime of my own grandchildren.

My other grandfather left my mothers in Iceland and became a chief Surgeon in the New York Hospital. He became quite succesful – operated the Shaw of Iran and Oppenheimer. His sister was a babysitter for Tolkien in 1930 – and I once asked her if she had any influence on his work – because Tolkien was writing the Hobbit at the time. She said – well I taught his son an old Icelandic childrens rhyme:

 ”Í grænni lautu þar geymi ég hringinn sem mér var gefinn en hvar er hann nú?”

 In translation:

 ”In the green medows

/ I am keeping the ring

/ that was given to me

/ but where is it now? ”

 Looking at that you can wonder about the multiplyer affect of words.

 If you ask me why some of my books have actually been well received by readers it is because I have a very evil wife. She does not look evil but then she gets a manuscript she takes her evil pen and tears it to pieces. Scripts that come clean from the publisher – with comments like – “very good”, “interesting”, “excellent” get comments from her like “oh my god!” – “Did you show this to anybody?” “Who can read this page?” “Do you understand this paragraph?” “Where is the logic?” So I spend half a year to meet her demands. There is nothing worse than a proofreader that does not want to hurt your feelings. Such a person is not your freind. My freind once got horrible reviews, he called his reader that said he actually agreed – he just didn’t want to hurt his feelings. He rather wanted him to be humiliated in the national press.

Kairos - I must admit – I did not know this god very well – my mothers never taught me to pray to him – but looking at some events in my life it seems like he has been pulling some strings – and yes I do admit – I sometimes looked at the skies and wondered who was playing with the events. Sometimes I even thought it was coincidence.

 For example – when I wrote my book Dreamland I was writing about ideas, ideas as one of the main forces of an economy – and how a lack of ideas lead to a lack of creativity – and over dependence on simple solutions of uncreative politicians. The american military base issue was very large in our politics. The cold war was over and they wanted to close down the base. That would mean a loss of 1000 jobs. And people said – this is devastating – they must not close down the base. And I wondered. Isn’t that absurd. The cold war is over – and people say that it’s devastating. So I wondered if world peace would spread around the planet like a virus – we would see headlines all over – “World peace threatens local economy.” “World peace – the tragedy of my life.”

 I wondered how language tells people that they are a product of a military base but not the force that keeps the base working – and could therefore keep anything working. How the language and medias approach to problems disempowers people instead of showing a way out of a problem or hinting an alternative solution. I decided to take a different approach to the issue – and wrote a whole scenario about the creative possibilities that would open up if the soldiers would leave the base. What other things could be done with all the facilities. It was fantasy, I was playing with ideas – but at the same time very flammable issues.

 Two days before the book came out – the americans announced they were closing the base. Some people actually thought I had inside information from the Pentagon. I had written 60 pages – about what to do when the base would close – all the positive and creative opportunities – that was kairos. Proactivism it can be called.

 So I was quite aware that there was some god of timing up there that was pulling some strings on my life.

 A chinese curse says – may you live in interesting times. In Iceland there are for sure very interesting times at the moment – maybe a bit too interesting – because who needs fiction when constant shoking news covers the media. Total collapse if we do this – total collapse if we don’t do it. Who needs drama when you have headlines like that.

Times like this are good and bad for art. Art often needs a firm ground to stand on – a reality that will not change for the two years it takes to make a project, like a film, or a novel. In iceland everything changes by the week. We are floating in thin air. Art can be well recieved because it has the right opinion, expresses the right anger – but in the long run – maybe it was not good art.

An artist always has to balance between the urgent issues- and the long term labour of art – and be careful that each element nourishes the other.

In Iceland our authorities decided to create an economic bubble with an industrial bubble. They decided to double the energy production in Iceland from 2002 – 2008 – and after that – by redoubling the production. They offered many of the most fragile, beautiful og biologivally diverse areas in Iceland as a source of cheap energy to many of the most destructive companies in the world. We knew that the economic benefit would only last during the construction gold rush – then we would have a crash. To double the energy production of a developed nation is unheared of, the scale is enormous. But it was not concidered madness – it was concidered inevitable progress – people were silenced for being critical – to be critical – to go against the propaganda was concidered extremist – even as economic terrorism.

This had a tremendous great affect on artists in Iceland. Many believed that these areas were more important than anything they could create from their own mind. Friends of mine stopped infact making art and started walking. They took hundreds of people for long walks into the rugged highlands with tents to show them the endangered places. It was after one of those walks that I decided that a proper novel could wait – so I made Dreamland – the book and the film.

In Iceland the crisis is not new – it has been underlying for years – even though international rating companies looked at our economic growth and called Iceland an economic miracle. When you are in a bubble – an economic or ideological bubble – it covers all the spectums of your daily life and thinking – it becomes almost impossible to think beyond the bubble. A bubble has its own force of gravity – it marks the orbit that your thoughts and language can rotate. You can only go a certain distance from the bubble – as go your thoughts, language and choice of words.

When the bubble bursts, the language changes – positive words become their own opposites and vice versa – words like bank, wealth, profit have a completely different meaning. And that is one of the interesting things in Iceland today – when there is no gravity anymore for our thought to circulate – then everything becomes possible – and then again – the question arises – what do you do as an artist? Should you keep writing the story you started long before – in an other era – or should you join the debate, or find other forms for your expression.

In Iceland today the most urgent issues is to keep people active after jobs or industries go bust. We need to recreate the economy. Politicians will not save us. The solutions must come from the grassroots, the energy of the people.

 A few days after the economy collapsed I met a freind of mine – an architect. She was laying off 10 of her employees – very talented young architects. She had been talking to a carpenter freind of hers, that was talking about all the equipment and skills that were going to waist. We have well educated people that have lost their jobs, we have skilled workers that are not building a house in the next years. We have unused machines and a government up to their ears in problems. So one of the interesting things in the crisis is how people that have never met, start working together. I got involved in a group that has taken over a huge powerstation in Reykjavík that has been empty for 20 years. In that building we are gathering people together. Architects, designers, skilled workers, old men with their mechanical knowhow and young people looking for a direction and ideas of what to do in the future. In this house we want to make a prototype center for new ideas and sustainable products.

 Kairos is the god of the right moment.

 I had just been wondering last september after spending too much time on this powerstation concept – what a crazy carrier I was creating – I had become the publishers nightmare. Making a book of poetry, when asked for an other I wrote short stories, asked for a novel I made a CD with old Icelandic folkmusic – then a childrens book, that did quite well and has been published in 20 countries. But instead of a follow up – I made LoveStar a book not suitable for children – cyber punk sci fi – for adults – about an enormous Icelandic company that causes the end of the world. Yes you can call that prophetic. When asked for a proper novel – I made political non fiction, a play and then a documentary film.

 In the publishing world – the fiction publisher does not know any childrens book publishers and they no nothing about non fiction or poetry and they have no interest in film festival success. If not writing I was busy doing public lectures, mobalising people, nature concert organization and activism, had become some kind of an energy and aluminum expert. My friend kindly said – you will never get anywhere if you scatter your carrier on plays, poetry, films, activism babies and powerstations. But I asked him – why does nobody understand diversity – why do you have to make a lifelong commitment to one art form? Why should I always have to be a poet? Why do I need to aquire the identity of a film maker, or novelist, or playwrite – shall you dedicate to one form? Should an artist not seize what form he thinks that fits the moment? And if no form fits the moment – sometimes it’s better or an artist just to walk or participate in making a powerstation.

Then Kairos called.

I want to thank Elín Hansdóttir – and Darri Lorenzen. I have been told that they pitched my name to the Alfred Toepfer institute. Emiliana, Pétur, Hilmar, Páll and Steindór for the music and joining us. Mamma pabbi, Hulda, Jón Pétur – Magga – og krakkar! And my posses! I would like to thank my publisher for his patience, my collaborators during the years, codirectors, co writers, codesigners and coworkers. Birta, Uta and Ansgar! Thank you!

Andri Magnason, Kairos Awards, Hamburg, 28th of February 2010.

The Alfred Toepfer Stiftung F.V.S has announced that Andri Snær Magnason will be the winner of the Kairos Award of 2010. The Award Ceremony will take place at Deutches Schauspielhaus in Hamburg, february 28th 2010. 

KAIROS — A European Cultural Prize awarded by the Alfred Toepfer Stiftung F.V.S.

Since its establishment the foundation has awarded various cultural prizes of different endowment throughout Europe. Reflecting the changing social, political and cultural conditions of contemporary Europe, most of the previous awards were discontinued in favour of one newly conceived and at the same time higher endowed prize. The KAIROS Prize which was first awarded in 2007 represents an innovation within a rather distinguished post-war history of price giving through the foundation. Previous winners of prices initiated by the Alfred Toepfer Stiftung F.V.S. have been, among others, Harold Pinter, Pina Bausch, Samuel Mendes, Imre Kertesz, David Hockney, Cees Nooteboom or, more recently, Olafur Eliasson.

Hér eru kvikmyndirnar sem tilnefndar eru:

KVIKMYNDIR

Draumalandið
Þessi magnaða ákæra yfir rústum íslenska draumsins var nokkur ár í vinnslu og kom ekki fyrir almenningssjónir fyrr en nokkru eftir efnahagshrunið, en upphaflega stóð til að sýna hana fyrr. Við það varð áhrifamáttur myndarinnar meiri; í stað þess að vera aðeins aðvörun um villu og ranga vegferð varð hún spegillinn sem sýndi okkur samhengið milli ýmissa orsaka og þeirra afleiðinga sem við nú glímum við. Þetta er þróttmikil frásögn og ástríðufull, höfundunum Þorfinni Guðnasyni og Andra Snæ Magnasyni er mikið niðri fyrir. Þeir vilja hrifsa áhorfendur úr værð draumalandsins og inn í kaldan veruleikann; hvað gerðist, hvers vegna gerðist það og af hverju leyfðum við því að gerast? 

Njálsgata
Gráglettin og heilsteypt stuttmynd sem fjallar um líf ungs fólks í Reykjavík árið 1996. Ísold Uggadóttur tekst vel að fanga stemningu liðins tíma, þegar fólk neyddist til að eiga prívat símtöl í vinnunni innan um annað fólk í síma með snúru í vegg, fyrir tíma farsímanna. Leikur þeirra Dóru, Jörundar og Darra er samstilltur, leikmyndin og búningar vekja nostalgíuna sem og tónlistin. Eins er stemningin á vinnustaðnum: Símaskránni, dásamleg. Dramað í myndinni felst í því hvað getur gerst í ástarsamböndum þegar traustið brestur og óöryggið og afbrýðisemin ná yfirhöndinni. Ísold stundar nú meistaranám í kvikmyndaleikstjórn við Columbia-háskólann í New York. Það verður gaman að fylgjast með þessari ungu, hæfileikaríku konu í framtíðinni.
 
Bjarnfreðarson/Fangavaktin
Hinn magnaði Vaktabálkur Ragnars Bragasonar og félaga hefur fært okkur ógleymanlegar persónur sem hafa náð að smeygja sér inn í vitundina og verða að viðmiðum í hvunndeginum. Orðfæri þeirra hefur einnig orðið hluti af því daglega tungutaki sem við notum til að skilgreina tilveruna frá degi til dags. Þættirnir hafa skapað ný viðmið í gerð leikins sjónvarpsefnis á Íslandi og standast fyllilega alþjóðlegan samanburð. Sjónvarpsþættirnir Fangavaktin og bíómyndin Bjarnfreðarson eru áhrifamikill lokakafli heildarverksins. Í Fangavaktinni lokast Georg Bjarnfreðarson innan rimla hugans, um leið og Daníel og Ólafur Ragnar byrja að losna undan áhrifavaldi hans. Í bíómyndinni Bjarnfreðarson freistar Georg þess að finna leiðina út, fyrirgefa sjálfum sér breytni sína. Sú leit hans að endurlausn, með hjálp sinna gömlu félaga, er allt í senn; kómísk, sorgleg og hjartnæm. 
 
Sólskinsdrengurinn
Móðir Kela, ungs einhverfs drengs, leggur upp í leit að leiðinni inn fyrir skel sonar síns. Þessi saga um trú, þrautseigju og lítil kraftaverk er næmlega sögð af þroskuðum kvikmyndahöfundi, hvers mannskilningur og samkennd með hlutskipti fólks skín úr hverjum ramma. Þetta er myndin þar sem Friðrik Þór sneri aftur. Það er engin tilviljun að þekktar stjörnur hafi lagt þessu verki lið, eða að myndin fari nú í víðtæka dreifingu í Bandaríkjunum og víðar, því að þessi hjartnæma og áhrifamikla saga lætur engan ósnortinn.
 

Íslensk alþýða
Það er ávallt gleðiefni þegar fyrsta kvikmynd ungs kvikmyndahöfundar heppnast svo vel að áhorfandinn fær nýja sýn á veruleikann. Heimildamyndin Íslensk alþýða eftir Þórunni Hafstað er þannig mynd. Þórunn, sem nýlokið hefur námi í sjónrænni mannfræði, beinir sjónum að verkamannabústöðunum við Hringbraut og nokkrum íbúum þeirra. Áherslan er bæði skemmtileg og nýstárleg; þetta er saga um samskipti fólks við það rými sem það hrærist í. Með því að skoða þessi samskipti nær Þórunn að sýna okkur venjulegt fólk í því samhengi sem við leiðum oftast hjá okkur. Smáatriði opinbera óvæntar hliðar. Hið ofur hvunndagslega reynist áhugaverðara en áhorfandinn ætlar. Húsið hefur sál og aðgát skal höfð í allri nærveru og umgengni. Myndin vakti mikla athygli á Skjaldborg, hátíð íslenskra heimildamynda, síðastliðið vor og á Alþjóðlegri kvikmyndahátíð í haust. Vonandi ber Sjónvarpið gæfu til að sýna hana sem fyrst, enda á hún fullt erindi við íslenska alþýðu.

Nefndin 
Ásgrímur Sverrisson
kvikmyndagerðarmaður og ritstjóri, formaður

Bjargey Ólafsdóttir
kvikmyndagerðarmaður og myndlistarmaður

Dóri DNA
Tón- og sviðslistamaður

Úr myndaröð Ellerts Grétarssonar

Cinema Politica heitir félagsskapur í Kanada sem stendur fyrir sýningum á heimildarmyndum í háskólum landsins. Þeir munu sýna Draumalandið á einhverjum 60 stöðum næstu misserin í Kanada. Dómar um myndina eru þegar farnir að berast og eru býsna jákvæðir.  Í Concordian birtist dómur um myndina sem segir meðal annars:

“The film is worth seeing for the visuals alone. The documentary is all the more exceptional given its ability to seamlessly weave a sense of poetic narrative with stark journalistic storytelling. The story is so well told that the film becomes its own cultural art form. It’s rare to find a documentary so complete and well directed. ”

Vefsíðan Artthreat.net er ekki að skafa af því og segir myndina vera bestu heimildarmynd um umhverfismál sem gerð hefur verið:

“Once every five to ten years a film comes along that shakes your soul, rattles the cage of your conscience, and awakes you from a media-immersed cryogenic dream state. The technical perfection and power of the message rearrange the synopsis in your circuitry and leaves you feeling like a wave of clarity and inspiration has washed over you. This sermon on the mount, the audiovisual awakening that has knocked me from safe and comfortable passage into a world I had temporarily forgotten was there, is the magnificent breathtaking political documentary Dreamland.”

Dóminn má lesa í heild sinni hér.

Draumalandið verður sýnt víða á næstunni, kvikmyndahátíðum í Noregi, Gautaborg, Helsinki og Tallinn, einnig verður hún sýnd í Kaupmannahöfn og víða í Kanada.

Draumalandið á japönsku

Draumalandið er komið út á japönsku hjá NHK. En það er einskonar BBC þeirra Japana. Andri Snær var í Tokyo. Sú ferð gekk vel og var hann með viðburð ásamt Takemura – um það má lesa hér. Mæli með Google Translate til að komast að kjarna málsins.

Úr myndaröð Ellerts Grétarssonar af Reykjanesi

Íslensk verkalýðsforysta náði líklega sögulegum lágpunkti sínum undanfarnar vikur í fáránlegri herferð sinni fyrir stórfyrirtækið Century Aluminum og álverið í Helguvík. Það er niðurlægjandi að heyra fullorða menn tala um að eitt fyrirtæki sé forsenda fjárlaga, forsenda stöðugleika og forsenda framtíðarinnar á Íslandi. Í raun snýst barátta þeirra um að stórauka skuldir íslenskra orkufyrirtækja, bæta á þau skuldum sem nemur rúmri Kárahnjúkavirkjun, klára helstu orkukostina á suðvesturhorninu og djöflast sem fyrst í illa undirbúnar framkvæmdir.

Það er erfitt að skilja hverju ASÍ var að hóta – átti að verða sjúkraliðaverkfall, stopp hjá hlaðmönnum og skólaliðum, löndunarbann á Ísafirði ef Century fengi ekki vilja sínum framgengt í Helguvík? Eða eins og þeir orðuðu svo smekklega fasískt í sáttmálanum: ,,Öllum hindrunum rutt úr vegi”. Það er magnað að þegar Ísland er farið á hliðina út af fúski og skorti á heildarsýn að þá á bara að spýta í lófana. Helst að tvöfalda skuldir ofurskuldsettra orkufyrirtækja. Það liggur ekki fyrir nein heildarsýn – ekkert skipulag. Century Aluminum er hernaðarlegt í aðgerðum sínum, það byrjar að byggja án þess að vera komið með nokkuð í höfn, meira að segja án þess að vera komið með höfn. Margir starfsmenn hjá Norðuráli voru ósáttir við að kynna 250.000 tonna verksmiðju á sínum tíma – vegna þess að þeir vissu að hún þyrfti að verða stærri og öll plönin byggðu á stærri tölunni. ASÍ virðist skítsama um orkuverð, einkavæðingu orkulinda, mengunarkvóta, heildarsýn í orkumálum, umhverfismál eða þá staðreynd að öll álverin geta auðveldlega komist á eina hendi eftir góðan snúning á Wall Street. Þá erum við að selja einum hákarli 90% orkunnar. Þá er gott að sjá hvernig hákarlar hugsa: Hér á eftir er fjárfestabréf frá fyrirtæki sem er að mæla með kaupum í Century Aluminum – hvernig þeir sjá samningsaðstöðuna sem fyrirtækin komast í gagnvart Íslandi með sitt ,,dirt cheap energy”: 

,,Century never has to worry that its energy cost will get too high as a percentage of what it sells. If Century’s sales are great, then pays more for power, but it’s happy to. If the price of aluminum crashes, Century’s power cost goes way down.

It works out great for Iceland, too… It is very cheap for Iceland to deliver power to Century. The Icelandic power companies will make extraordinary profits on that power if aluminum prices stay strong. And if aluminum prices weaken, Iceland is not biting the hand that feeds it.”

Í bréfinu til fjárfesta er talað um hvernig fyrirtækin spila ,,hardball” við verkalýðsfélög. En fyrir þá sem ekki vita þá spila stákar hardball í baseball en stelpur spila softball: 

,,For example: Playing hardball, Century announced plans to close its West Virginia facility in the wake of a 72-hour strike notice from its labor union (they didn’t close the factory). “

Já þarna er alþjóðleg samstaða verkalýðsins í hnotskurn – hótun um að flytja til Íslands er notuð sem grýla á Gylfa Arnbjörnssyni þeirra Ameríkana. Hér á eftir fer þessi grein úr True Wealth – gefið út af Stansberry and Assosiates Investment Research.

EVEN MORE FREE POWER

Iceland is incredibly lucky…

Not only does it have nearly free hot water, heating, and power from below the earth’s surface, it is just as lucky above the earth’s surface, in the form of nearly free hydro-electric power.

Iceland is mountainous, with glaciers. Here, water flows relentlessly from the mountains to the sea, with natural and manmade waterfalls along the way.

Harness that energy, and Iceland has more almost-free power, indefinitely. According to Iceland’s government, only one-fifth of the country’s hydropower and only a fraction of the geothermal potential available have been harnessed for electricity production.

Almost free energy everywhere… courtesy of the earth. This, obviously, makes Iceland an ideal place to locate energy-intensive projects.

For about a generation now, big companies haven’t cared too much about the cost of energy. Now that the price of oil has skyrocketed (along with other commodities) the cost of energy has soared. It caught a lot of people off guard.

The aluminum sector in particular is feeling it. Energy is the single biggest cost in producing aluminum. Aluminum producers that rely on “traditional” sources of power are shutting down. We’re seeing closures across the U.S., Europe, and even China. It’s simply too darn inefficient to produce aluminum at these high energy prices.

So we’re going to capitalize on it. This month’s recommendation is a U.S.-traded aluminum company that is expanding rapidly in Iceland. It has long-term contracts in Iceland to use cheap hydroelectric and geothermal power exclusively.

If you’re not in Iceland, you’re not going to be competitive in aluminum. Three companies are there now… giants Alcoa and Alcan, and little known Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX).

NEVER WORRY ABOUT THE PRICE OF POWER AGAIN

Century Aluminum is our new recommendation this month. This company never has to worry about its power bill…

The deal Century struck with Iceland’s power companies is smart… Century’s power bill is simply a percentage of the price of aluminum on the London Metals Exchange. This arrangement works out great for both sides…

Century never has to worry that its energy cost will get too high as a percentage of what it sells. If Century’s sales are great, then pays more for power, but it’s happy to. If the price of aluminum crashes, Century’s power cost goes way down.

It works out great for Iceland, too… It is very cheap for Iceland to deliver power to Century. The Icelandic power companies will make extraordinary profits on that power if aluminum prices stay strong. And if aluminum prices weaken, Iceland is not biting the hand that feeds it.

To give you an idea of how cheap power is in Iceland, consider this: Australian mining giant BHP Billiton actually ships over a hundred thousand tons of alumina from the Southern Hemisphere all the way to Iceland each year, simply to have Century Aluminum turn it into aluminum for them. Then BHP turns around and exports all that aluminum to wherever it’s needed on the globe.

It sounds crazy that all that travel could be the most cost-efficient way to produce aluminum, but it is, thanks to Iceland’s incredibly cheap power.

As of the end of 2005, Century’s production capacity in Iceland was 90,000 metric tons of aluminum per year. Within a year’s time, that capacity should be up to 220,000 metric tons. And a year later, capacity will be up to 260,000 metric tons in Iceland. Nearly three times what it was at the end of ’05.

CENTURY’S NOT JUST AN ICELAND STORY

While Century has been expanding in Iceland, Iceland will only make up just over one-third of Century’s production capacity once its expansion is completed. The other two-thirds of its production is in the U.S.

Century’s U.S. production facilities are, as you might imagine, high cost. The biggest costs in aluminum are power, alumina, and labor. None of these come cheaply in the U.S. Century appears to be willing to walk away if necessary.

For example: Playing hardball, Century announced plans to close its West Virginia facility in the wake of a 72-hour strike notice from its labor union (they didn’t close the factory). Century believes it has certain advantages in the U.S. (quality and proximity to customers), however, the West Virginia incident shows that Century isn’t afraid to close its U.S. operations when it needs to.

Iceland is the future for Century. But nearly two-thirds of its operations will still be in the States for now.

WHY CENTURY’S STOCK IS SO EXTRAORDINARILY CHEAP

Shares of Century are cheap… If we buy now, the earnings the company makes could pay off our investment in less than five years’ time. Let me explain…

A year from now, the company will have more capacity in Iceland. And even more capacity will come online a year after that. So if the price of aluminum stays flat, the company should bring home even more in profits going forward.

However, Wall Street analysts are predicting lower earnings for Century in the coming years, primarily based on a prediction that the price of aluminum will fall. So instead of seeing Century’s earnings grow, Wall Street analysts expect Century’s earnings to fall starting a year from now.

Wall Street analysts are concerned about how much Century is tied to the price of aluminum. Analysts say that a one-cent change in the price of aluminum translates into about a 15-cent change in a year’s earnings per share for Century. This tells us that Century’s performance is extremely leveraged to the price of aluminum.

Yes, this is a concern. But it’s also an opportunity… particularly if the price of aluminum actually goes up.

Goldman Sachs, for example, is forecasting an aluminum price of $0.85 for 2007. The current price is around $1.10. If the price of aluminum simply stays the same, instead of crashes as predicted, then we should make a heck of a lot of money in Century shares.

If you’ve been a reader of True Wealth for a while, you know that I believe we’re in a secular bull market in commodities that could last for many more years. Sure, if the price of aluminum stays flat, Century Aluminum will make a heck of a lot of money. And so will you, as a shareholder buying when the company sells for 4.5 times earnings. But if the price of aluminum goes up, Century will do very well.

Also, if the price of power keeps going up, the only aluminum producers left standing will be the ones with dirt-cheap energy costs… like the three in Iceland.

For years now, True Wealth readers have made a fortune in commodity-related trades. We’ve made our money on a very simple premise… you can’t know the future. Every year since commodity prices started rising, Wall Street analysts have predicted the price of commodities will fall. And every year, we say “we can’t know the future… the best guess of tomorrow’s price is today’s price.” On this little premise, we’ve made a fortune in commodity-related plays.

We have a great opportunity to buy a stock when the market thinks the price of that commodity (aluminum in this case) will fall. If the market price of aluminum simply stays where it is, I think we could double our money here. If aluminum goes up in price, Century could do much better.

I personally think Century could make ridiculous profits in the next few years, and use those profits to pay down its debt. Then it can survive future bad times (aluminum prices are cyclical), and make a fortune in good times.

Buy Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) up to $36 a share. Use a 25% trailing stop. I expect to hold this one approximately two years, and I will consider selling some (possibly all) if we get a double here.

Íslendingar eru ekki mjög meðvitaðir um hvaðan hráefnið kemur sem er notað í verksmiðjunum hér á landi. Fyrir þá sem ekki vita hvaðan hráefnið kemur í verksmiðju Alcoa hér á landi má benda á þessa frétt Al Jazzeera frá Jamaica en eftir því sem ég veit best þá hefur Century einnig haft talsverð umsvif. Þessi frétt hér á Bloomberg er einnig athyglisverð. Hún fjallar um hvernig fyrirtækið fer á svig við lög og veldur eyðileggingu á Amazon svæðinu. Hér má síðan sjá aðra frétt frá Gíneu.

Ef Íslendingar ætla að verða háðir þessari keðju þar sem fyrirtæki renna saman og eru keypt og seld og Century í dag er Alcoa eða Rusal á morgun – verða menn að þekkja eðli hans og umsvif á heimsvísu. Og láta sig varða ef hráefnið sem hingað kemur veldur öðrum skaða.

Á sunnudag var viðtal við Andra Snæ Magnason í hádegisfréttum RÚV. Umfjöllun og umræðu um það mál má sjá hér og hér. Ef comment eru skoðuð á Eyjunni mætti ætla að orkuþörfin væri byggð á einhverskonar persónulegri skoðun minni en svo er ekki, ekkert frekar en tveir plús tveir eru fjórir. Ef álverið í Helguvík hefði verið 100.000 tonn þá hefði eflaust verið hægt að byggja ágætt álver í Helguvík. En því miður er grunnstærð álvers, stærðin sem öll tæknin, kerin, sílóin og rafkerfið inni í þessum verksmiðjum hannað miðað við 360.000 tonna einingu. Það þýðir einfaldlega að skrapa þarf orku sem jafngildir heilli Kárahnjúkavirkjun og flytja til Helguvíkur. Þetta segja allir í bransanum. Stækkun álversins í Straumsvík sem var felld snerist að sögn fróðra manna einmitt um þetta, að setja svona einingu við hliðina á gamla álverinu. Á Húsavík gildir hið sama og allt tal um minna álver voru því miður blekkingar. Og þessar stærðir þýða einfaldlega að áliðnaðurinn hefur vaxið Íslandi og orkulindum landsins yfir höfuð.

Áformin um að tvöfalda orkuframleiðslu á Íslandi og tvöfalda síðan aftur eru fáheyrð og fáránlegar í þróuðu samfélagi. Þarfir áliðnaðarins eru orðnar of miklar og því miður sjáum við menn spila leiki, sem ég vil kalla hreinan óheiðarleika í framsetningu á upplýsingum til almennings. Þessar fréttir Stöðvar 2 verða að teljast til fyrirmyndar vegna þess að þær fjalla um heildarmynd en ekki bitana sem fyrirtækin ætla almenningi að kyngja. Fréttin hér að ofan sýnir hvað þarf mikla orku til Helguvíkur – en allt það er þó háð mikilli óvissu. Ekki hefur verið rætt hvort höfuðborgin þoli meiri brennisteinsmengun, hvort eigi að gjörnýta svo mörg mikilvæg útivistarsvæði fyrir Norðurál, auk þess sem að fáir vita að í Þjórsá lifir 6% af villtum laxastofni Íslands – búsvæði hans myndu eyðileggjast. Orkuþörfin er gríðarmikil og kallar á brjálaða skuldsetningu af hálfu orkufyrirtækja Íslendinga sem nú þegar eru að sligast og ekkert eigið fé til að leggja í nýjar framkvæmdir.

Þá er búin til leikflétta sem má kenna við sjúkdómsvæðingu einkavæðingarsinna: Það er ekki talið forsvaranlegt fyrir opinbera aðila að svala orkuþörf Norðuráls og því þarf aðilii eins og Magma Energy að koma til bjargar og einkavæða þessar orkulindir. Því miður hafa stjórnvöld, orkuyfirvöld, iðnaðarráðuneyti og fleiri brugðist í þessu máli. Menn leyna upplýsingum fyrir almenningi, gera samning um 360.000 tonna verksmiðju sem þeir ætla annaðhvort ekki að uppfylla, eða nota gömlu góðu aðferðina við að sjóða frosk, hækka hitann hægt og rólega. Í tilfelli Alcoa á Húsavík var laumað inn litlu álveri – sem síðan var stækkað um 50% án þess að hafa nokkur áhrif á umfjöllun um verkefnið eða teljast forsendubreyting. Núna þegar Alcoa hefur hafið framleiðslu á Reyðarfirði hefur fyrirtækið greinilega ákveðið að nota lélegri rafskaut og losa því 50% meira af SO2 en í fyrstu var tilkynnt. Lítið álver var alltaf fyrirhugað í Helguvík, tilkynning um 50% stækkun kom fyrir ári síðan, þann 9. október, þremur dögum eftir hrun. Það kom mér ekki á óvart vegna þess að starfsmenn Norðuráls höfðu sagt mér þetta fyrir löngu – að litla tillagan væri blekking – og þeir voru ekki sáttir við að taka þátt í slíkum leik.

Nýja tillagan um stækkun Straumsvíkur, sem snýst um að lagfæra gömlu verksmiðjuna og stækka um 40.000 tonn með 75MW orkuþörf hefði alveg örugglega fengið 90% fylgi í kosningum – ef hún hefði verið í boði enda má segja að hún teljist eðlilegt viðhald og er eflaust fjárfesting sem er hlutfallslega mannafls og hönnunarfrek. Hún felur ekki í sér 8 nýjar virkjanir og rask á óspilltu landi. Orkuverðið þyrfti þá að vera uppi á borðinu og mannréttindamál móðurfélagsins sömuleiðis.

Það er alveg sorglegt að sjá menn vaða uppi eins og Norðurál gerir í Helguvík, þeir byrja að byggja án þess að hafa fengið tilskilin leyfi og knýja á um samning sem er hreint og beint dónalegur, fara fram eins og einhverjir Sturlungar. Samningurinn felur ekki aðeins í sér skattfríðindi, mengunarréttindi og ríkisstyrki heldur telja menn sig geta sópað til sín allri orkunni á suðvesturhorninu eins og ofangreindar fréttir sýna. Norðurál er þannig hernaðarlegt í útþenslu sinni og þrýstingi sem verkalýðsfélög taka undir af fullum þunga. Þetta er ekki spurning um að vera með eða á móti áli – þetta er spurning um að standa í lappirnar þegar alger geðveiki ríður yfir. Auðlindir eru vandmeðfarnar, þær geta skilað tapi, þær geta orðið þjóðum bölvun, jafnvel þótt þær skili miklum gróða. Menn eiga að anda rólega – og ekki selja Magma skúffufyrirtækinu Hitaveitu Suðurnesja, við höfum ekki efni á að halda uppi frekum körlum á einkaþotum. Það tímabil er búið.